Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Guess the Oscars' best pic nominations

I'm predicting these five will be nominated for best pic tomorrow morning:
  • "The Dark Knight"
  • "Slumdog Millionaire"
  • "Milk"
  • "WALL-E"
  • "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
What are you best picture guesses? chris-brad, you can officially begin the annual flogging of the LaMovBlogger.

My official backpedaling: I'm going out on a limb with "WALL-E," but it's the best movie I've seen this year (besides the documentary "Man on Wire"). I have to cheer for it! Conventional wisdom says "Frost/Nixon" will take "WALL-E's" spot.

"Benjamin Button" has lost some of its buzz, too, so I wouldn't be surprised to see another crowd-pleaser like "Gran Torino" sneak into its spot or "Milk's." In other words, I think it's very, very hard to predict the noms this year. "Slumdog" looks like the only lock, and there are no automatics like "No Country for Old Men" or "There Will Be Blood" or "Juno."

What will be robbed? "Synecdoche, New York." It's the most inventive pic I've seen this year but I don't think voters are ever in the mood for something more despairing than my 401(k).

Here are the proverbial bridesmaids that should earn some noms: "Frost/Nixon" * "Revolutionary Road" * "The Reader" * "The Wrestler" * "Cadillac Records" * "Doubt" * "Rachel Getting Married"

13 comments:

ChrisBrad said...

My best picture picks:

"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Dark Knight"
"Frost/Nixon"
"Milk"
"Slumdog Millionaire"

I also loved "Wall-E," but I think the Academy will continue to honor animated films in their own category. It is sort of like amazing foreign language films... They get honored there and left out (generally) of contention for the BIG prize.

While this isn't fair, it is the way of the world. At least it is until we take over the AMPAS and bring common sense and love of film into the mix. The short-sightedness and popularity contests need to end. How about an award show that honored the best?!?

But I have to COMPLETELY disagree with you about "Grand Torino." I did not like the film at all. The only redeeming thing I found was Eastwood, but we have seen him before. I am truly puzzled at the acclaim and box office success.

As a bonus, I'll even throw in a few more nomination picks. Remember, these are what I think will get nods NOT who deserves the nomination!

Director:
Danny Boyle, "Slumdog Millionaire"
David Fincher, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Ron Howard, "Frost/Nixon"
Sam Mendes, "Revolutionary Road"
Gus Van Sant, "Milk"

Actor:
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Revolutionary Road"
Clint Eastwood, "Grand Torino"
Frank Langella, "Frost/Nixon"
Sean Penn, "Milk"
Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler"

Actress:
Anne Hathaway, "Rachel Getting Married"
Sally Hawkins, "Happy Go Lucky"
Angelina Jolie, "Changeling"
Meryl Streep, "Doubt"
Kate Winslet, "Revolutionary Road"

Supporting Actor:
Robert Downey, Jr., "Tropic Thunder"
James Franco, "Milk"
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, "Doubt"
Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight"
Michael Shannon, "Revolutionary Road"

Supporting Actress:
Penelope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Viola Davis, "Doubt"
Taraji P. Henson, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Marisa Tomei, "The Wrestler"
Kate Winslet, "The Reader"

Alexandyr Kent said...

I'm going to lose huge.

Director
Danny Boyle, "Slumdog Millionaire"
David Fincher, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Andrew Stanton, "WALL-E"
Charlie Kaufman, "Synecdoche, New York"
Gus Van Sant, "Milk"

Actor
Richard Jenkins, "The Visitor"
Clint Eastwood, "Grand Torino"
Frank Langella, "Frost/Nixon"
Sean Penn, "Milk"
Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler"

Actress
Anne Hathaway, "Rachel Getting Married"
Sally Hawkins, "Happy Go Lucky"
Melissa Leo, "Frozen River"
Meryl Streep, "Doubt"
Kate Winslet, "Revolutionary Road"

Supporting Actor
Jeffrey Wright, "Cadillac Records"
James Franco, "Milk"
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, "Doubt"
Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight"
Michael Shannon, "Revolutionary Road"

Supporting Actress:
Penelope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Viola Davis, "Doubt"
Amy Adams, "Doubt"
Marisa Tomei, "The Wrestler"
Kate Winslet, "The Reader"

Alexandyr Kent said...

And go JCVD!

Chris Jay said...

Alex, I could not agree with you more strongly regarding Richard Jenkins in Best Actor and James Franco in Best Supporting Actor. The EXTREMELY unlikely nominee that I am pulling for is Kim Rivers a.k.a. Black Kold Madina for Best Song, for her theme song to the documentary "Trouble the Water." I know that Springsteen will win it for "The Wrestler," but that's my dark horse pick. I am also pulling for "Trouble the Water" to make the cut in the documentary category. We had such a great time showing the film - and hosting the subjects of the film - at the RFC.

I also really have to wonder if Brad Pitt is going to sneak into the Best Actor category...

ChrisBrad said...

Well, well, well....

It looks like I scored 23 of 30. Now let's count your picks: 21 of 30.

Is 23 still more than 21? I kid, Alexandyr. I kid!


I cannot believe "The Dark Knight" got shut out of the best picture category. After years of best picture nominees basically being 5 films most people have never seen, I just KNEW this would be the year that changed. And Kate Winslet being nominsated for actress in "The Reader" instead of "Revolutionary Road?" Interesting...

Not being a downer, but I am very happy "Grand Torino" fell flat in these selections. Now my worry shifts to the extremely overrated "Milk." I've said it before, but I have a feeling the Academy may give "Milk" more AWARDS (not nominations, but actual awards) than it deserves to make political statements. If it deserved the awards, I would be happy (James Franco, where is your supporting acting nom?). But making a statement on the back of a mediocre film will backfire. Why pass up more popular (and more deserving) fare for insider films that make viewers feel good for having seen them? I don't get a lot of what this group does...

ChrisBrad said...

BTW, I know how to spell nominated. Grr...

And out of the respect for the rules or sportmanship, I must confess a mistake. I forgot (even though I took the time to write) Kate Winselt got the nod for "The Reader" not for "Revolutionary Road." Right person, wrong film.

So, I defer to the judges. Is my score 22, 22.5, or do I get whole credit and get 23? Judges??? Judges???

ChrisBrad said...

And I also know how to spell Winslet.

Man, this chill in the air is getting to me. Brr.. and Grr...

Alexandyr Kent said...

It's tightening up, chris-brad. It's tightening up. I'm only a failure by 1 point now. It's like my kindergarten art project all over again!

Not surprised that Brolin got a nod this year. I've heard he's pretty amazing in it, and the dude is totally due.

But no Eastwood acting nod? That's surprising to me. I thought they'd give Dirty Harry a chance.

Can't say I agree with "The Reader" for best pic, but TWC is jumping for frickin' joy. They desperately need this one. I'll have to take a second look.

Alexandyr Kent said...

WALL-E got a writing nod? At least there's that. And what? No Disaster Movie?

ChrisBrad said...

Wait, hold the "almost" champagne toast!

If I don't get my point for Winslet neither do you! It seems we BOTH got the right actress, wrong film!

Still got you by TWO, my friend...

Alexandyr Kent said...

So what they heck was the final score? I'm too depressed to count it up. Quantify your triumph, man!

ChrisBrad said...

My brain hurts too much this morning to count. I got through one massive pile of work yesterday and have two left that MUST be gone by Saturday afternoon.

Let's just say we both did well (but I did better!)....

PS. Fingers are crossed I get enough done so I can skip out of the office and see "Slumdog" like I have planned.

Alexandyr Kent said...

Make it happen! Your future triumph depends on it.